The Ibex 35 has closed the first quarter of 2025 with a 13.29% increase, reaching 13,135.4 points, despite a March that served as a correction – with a 1.59% retreat – after two consecutive months of gains.
According to market data consulted by Europa Press, Monday’s session completely influenced the final result of March as the national index plummeted by 1.31% due to the tariff tension from the United States led by President Donald Trump.
In fact, the Spanish selective index reached positive levels during March, surpassing 13,500 points, marking unprecedented highs since 2008 last week.
However, the last trading day of the month was marked by a widespread decline in global stock markets – for example, Tokyo plummeted by 4%, while European markets fell by over 1% – due to the tariffs that the Trump Administration is expected to announce this week.
Renta 4 analysts have indicated that these tariffs will be announced on April 2, the ‘Day of Liberation’ in the United States, with a focus on the level of aggressiveness, possibility of limitation, whether they are more lenient than reciprocal, or directed at all countries, which sectors will be affected, etc.
Until that day, President Donald Trump has already announced a 25% tariff on all automobiles not manufactured in the United States and has threatened with secondary tariffs on countries that purchase oil from Russia if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not support a ceasefire in Ukraine; and secondary tariffs on Iran and the possibility of bombing the country if it does not sign a nuclear weapons agreement.
Additionally, the United States has revoked permits from several oil companies, including Repsol, to export oil from Venezuela.
«We will face a new chapter in the tariff storm,» Banca March experts have anticipated. «Trump seems to be preparing Americans and markets for the worst, the question remains whether he will ultimately offer something easier to digest or deploy his full tariff arsenal,» they speculated.
In parallel to these events, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has considered the change in relationship with the United States following Donald Trump’s presidency as an «existential moment» for Europe, which must take control of its destiny and move towards independence.
«He (Donald Trump) calls it the ‘Day of Liberation’ in the United States, but I see it as a moment where we must together decide to take better control of our destiny and I believe it is a step towards independence,» Lagarde stated in an interview with France Inter Radio.
March has also been marked by a paradigm shift in Germany, with changes in spending priorities through increased investments in infrastructure and defense, along with debt flexibility.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided this month to keep interest rates unchanged in the target range of 4.25% to 4.50%; additionally, the central bank has forecasted less economic growth and more inflation, complicating the future monetary policy timeline.
Within the Ibex 35, the best performers in the first quarter of the year have been Indra (+56.44%) along with the six banking values of the index (Santander, Sabadell, CaixaBank, Bankinter, Unicaja, and BBVA), with returns ranging from 30% to 38% so far this year; while the most pronounced declines have been seen in Rovi (-18.19%), IAG (-14%), Solaria (-12%), Puig (-11.75%), and Grifols (-10.38%).
Regarding the performance in March, the top performers were Indra (+27.48%), Endesa (+14.33%), and Bankinter (+9.76%), while the declines were led by IAG (-26.75%), Grifols (-22.81%), Solaria (-12.7%), and Inditex (-11.83%).
Major European stock markets also closed March in negative territory: Milan fell by 1.56%; Frankfurt by 1.96%; London by 2.58%, and Paris by almost 4%. Despite this, they have positive returns so far in 2025 ranging from 5%, in the case of Paris and London, to 11%, as reflected in Frankfurt and Milan.
On another note, the price of a barrel of Brent quality oil, the European benchmark, was at $74.73 on Monday, 2.15% higher than at the end of February, while Texas oil rose by 2.5% monthly, reaching $71.45.
In the currency market, the euro-dollar exchange rate was at 1.08 ‘greenback’, 4% higher than at the end of February, while in the bond market, the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds closed at 3.37%, with a risk premium of 63.5 points compared to German bonds.
On the other hand, the troy ounce of gold has yielded over 18% this year and reached a new high above $3,100 on Monday, while Bitcoin has countered the effect of Trump’s return to the US presidency and plummeted by 11% to $83,000.
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